Another issue of scientific journal Vol.30 No.1 2024 has been published

Ukrainian (UA)English (United Kingdom)

Other Categories

Вхід / реєстрація



We are in Facebook

Votes

How did you find on our site?
 

Simulation of the Ukrainian export dynamics and turnover influence on macroeconomic indicators of the national economy

Title: 


Simulation of the Ukrainian export dynamics and turnover influence on macroeconomic indicators of the national economy


Authors: 


Fedyshyn, Iryna
Harmatiy, Nataliya


Affiliation: 


Ternopil Ivan Puluj National University, 56, Ruska str., Ternopil, 46001, Ukraine


Bibliographic description (International): 


Fedyshyn. I. & Harmatiy, N. (2024) Simulation of the Ukrainian export dynamics and turnover influence on macroeconomic indicators of the national economy. Socio-Economic Problems and the State (electronic journal), Vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 75-85. URL: http://sepd.tntu.edu.ua/images/stories/pdf/2024/24fibpne.pdf


Journal/Collection:

 

Scientific Journal "Socio-Economic Problems and the State"


Issue: 


1(30)


Issue Date: 


Jun-2024


Submitted date:

 

Apr-2024


Date of entry: 


28-Jul-2024


Publisher: 


Ternopil Ivan Puluj National Technical University


Country (code): 


UA


Place of the edition/event: 


Ternopil


ORCID Id:

 

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5531-4566
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4426-9223


DOI: 


https://doi.org/10.33108/sepd2024.01.075


UDC: 


338.48


JEL: 


F6
Z32


Keywords: 


international trade
food security
challenges and threats
food products
mathematical modeling


Number of pages: 


11


Page range: 


75-85


Start page: 


75


End page: 


85


Abstract: 


The research investigates how recent crises in Ukraine have affected its agricultural exports to the European Union and the global market. It aims to establish a solid foundation for future economic forecasts in Ukraine. This includes developing relevant theories and methods, along with practical recommendations. The study will use economic and mathematical models to analyze the connection between national trade (turnover) and Ukraine's GDP. It will also examine the relationship between export levels and Ukraine's overall economic output. Nearly 30 years of progress for Ukraine's economy were disrupted by the war in the east. This unprecedented conflict created a major challenge. One key issue is that Ukraine's economy still relies heavily on exporting raw materials. The country sells products abroad that haven't been significantly processed. This has contributed to a negative trade balance since 2008 (except for 2014-2015), which reached a high of $8.7 billion in 2022. The war in Ukraine, combined with rising food costs and the ongoing pandemic, threatens global food security. Countries already facing conflict and crisis are especially vulnerable to this domino effect. It's important to note that Ukraine is a major food supplier to the European Union, ranking fourth overall. They are a crucial source of grains (including corn and wheat), vegetable oils, and oilseeds (especially rapeseed). Before the war, the EU was also one of Ukraine's most important trading partners. The study used economic and mathematical models to analyze the relationship between trade activity and economic growth in Ukraine. The results showed a clear positive correlation. This means that higher trade activity (turnover) leads to higher GDP. Specifically, a 10% increase in Ukraine's overall trade would be associated with a 12.4% increase in GDP. The research also found a positive correlation between exports and GDP. In other words, increasing exports by 10% could boost Ukraine's GDP by 9%.


Sponsorship: 


The authors received no direct funding for this research.


URI: 


http://elartu.tntu.edu.ua/handle/lib/46153


ISSN: 


2223-3822


Copyright owner: 


Scientific Journal "Socio-Economic Problems and the State"


URL for reference material: 


http://sepd.tntu.edu.ua/images/stories/pdf/2024/24fibpne.pdf
10.13140/RG.2.2.14965.24807
https://doi.org/ 10.2139/ssrn.3392199
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM:2022:133:FIN
10.2139/ssrn.4226510
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=UA
https://ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/menu/menu_u/zed.htm
https://doi.org/10.33108/galicianvisnyk_tntu2020.02.026
https://agravery.com/uk/posts/show/cerez-bojovi-dii-nemozlivo-provesti-posivnu-na-35-mln-gektariv-silgospzemel


References (International): 


1. Agarwal, S., Ang, S. H., & Varshneya, S. (2022) The Financial Crisis-Global Impact and Lessons. URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4130100
2. Balbaa M. E., Eshov M., Ismailova N. (2022) The Impacts of Russian-Ukrainian War on the Global Economy. Preprints. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.14965.24807
3. Bluszcz J., Valente M. (2019) The war in Europe: Economic costs of the Ukrainian conflict. DIW Berlin. DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.2139/ssrn.3392199
4. Сommunication from the commission to the European parliament, the European council, the council, the European economic and social Committee, and the Committee of the regions (2022). URL: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM:2022:133:FIN
5. Mhlanga D., Ndhlovu E. (2022) The Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War on Sustainable Development Goals in Africa. SSRN Electronic Journal. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4226510
6. World Bank national accounts data and OECD National Accounts data (2022). URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=UA
7. Ekonomichna statystyka. Zovnishnoekonomichna diialnist [Economic statistics. Foreign economic activity] (2022). URL: https://ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/menu/menu_u/zed.htm
8. Statystyka i reiestry. Derzhavna mytna sluzhba ukrainy (2022) [Statistics and Registers. State Customs Service of Ukraine]. URL: https://customs.gov.ua/statistika-ta-reiestri
9. Fedyshyn I. B., Harmatiy N. M. (2020) Investytsiino-innovatsiina diialnist pidpryiemstv promyslovosti Ukrainy [Investment and innovation activity of industrial enterprises of Ukraine]. Halytskyi ekonomichnyi visnyk, TNTU. Galician Economic Bulletin, TNTU. Issue 63, Vol. 2. 26-34 pp. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33108/galicianvisnyk_tntu2020.02.026
10. Cherez boiovi dii nemozhlyvo provesty posivnu na 3,5 mln hektariv silhospzemel [Because of hostilities it is impossible to sow 3.5 million hectares of agricultural land]. Agravery (2022) URL: https://agravery.com/uk/posts/show/cerez-bojovi-dii-nemozlivo-provesti-posivnu-na-35-mln-gektariv-silgospzemel


Content type: 


Article


Appears in Collections:


Scientific Journal "Socio-Economic Problems and the State", Vol.29, No.2

pdf

 

Journal is indexed by:

google_scholar
elartu_en
wiki_en

Other useful links:
pbn
Пошук у EBSCO
 

Google translate

Ukrainian English French German Polish Russian