Simulation of the Ukrainian export dynamics and turnover influence on macroeconomic indicators of the national economy

Fedyshyn, Iryna
Harmatiy, Nataliya

Ternopil Ivan Puluj National University, 56, Ruska str., Ternopil, 46001, Ukraine

Fedyshyn. I. & Harmatiy, N. (2024) Simulation of the Ukrainian export dynamics and turnover influence on macroeconomic indicators of the national economy. Socio-Economic Problems and the State (electronic journal), Vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 75-85. URL: http://sepd.tntu.edu.ua/images/stories/pdf/2024/24fibpne.pdf

Scientific Journal "Socio-Economic Problems and the State"

1(30)

Jun-2024

Apr-2024

28-Jul-2024

Ternopil Ivan Puluj National Technical University

UA

Ternopil

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5531-4566
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4426-9223

https://doi.org/10.33108/sepd2024.01.075

338.48

F6
Z32

international trade
food security
challenges and threats
food products
mathematical modeling

11

75-85

75

85

The research investigates how recent crises in Ukraine have affected its agricultural exports to the European Union and the global market. It aims to establish a solid foundation for future economic forecasts in Ukraine. This includes developing relevant theories and methods, along with practical recommendations. The study will use economic and mathematical models to analyze the connection between national trade (turnover) and Ukraine's GDP. It will also examine the relationship between export levels and Ukraine's overall economic output. Nearly 30 years of progress for Ukraine's economy were disrupted by the war in the east. This unprecedented conflict created a major challenge. One key issue is that Ukraine's economy still relies heavily on exporting raw materials. The country sells products abroad that haven't been significantly processed. This has contributed to a negative trade balance since 2008 (except for 2014-2015), which reached a high of $8.7 billion in 2022. The war in Ukraine, combined with rising food costs and the ongoing pandemic, threatens global food security. Countries already facing conflict and crisis are especially vulnerable to this domino effect. It's important to note that Ukraine is a major food supplier to the European Union, ranking fourth overall. They are a crucial source of grains (including corn and wheat), vegetable oils, and oilseeds (especially rapeseed). Before the war, the EU was also one of Ukraine's most important trading partners. The study used economic and mathematical models to analyze the relationship between trade activity and economic growth in Ukraine. The results showed a clear positive correlation. This means that higher trade activity (turnover) leads to higher GDP. Specifically, a 10% increase in Ukraine's overall trade would be associated with a 12.4% increase in GDP. The research also found a positive correlation between exports and GDP. In other words, increasing exports by 10% could boost Ukraine's GDP by 9%.

The authors received no direct funding for this research.

http://elartu.tntu.edu.ua/handle/lib/46153

2223-3822

Scientific Journal "Socio-Economic Problems and the State"

http://sepd.tntu.edu.ua/images/stories/pdf/2024/24fibpne.pdf
10.13140/RG.2.2.14965.24807
https://doi.org/ 10.2139/ssrn.3392199
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM:2022:133:FIN
10.2139/ssrn.4226510
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=UA
https://ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/menu/menu_u/zed.htm
https://doi.org/10.33108/galicianvisnyk_tntu2020.02.026
https://agravery.com/uk/posts/show/cerez-bojovi-dii-nemozlivo-provesti-posivnu-na-35-mln-gektariv-silgospzemel

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Article

Scientific Journal "Socio-Economic Problems and the State", Vol.29, No.2